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A few thoughts:

- good point about the selection bias of graduation speakers and now they probably downplay the role of luck

- what makes people even think they know what their dream job is? After working for an interesting company for a few years their perception might change dramatically

- is it the job that is the dream, or is it the fame, esteem and wealth? Jobs like being an author or a musician or an artist are probably less pleasant than working in a nice office with a team you like

- most of your heroes... Did they learn to be great in their field by studying it in college?

- on the other hand, advice to follow your dream might be good as long as you give yourself a healthy dose of optionality/convexity

- my advice to people would be don't settle for a job that bores or distresses you, but prepare to be surprised just how fulfilling certain jobs can be



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