Because they are, to use a technical term, "dumb as a stump". That's why they wo... | Hacker News

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		davidw 43 days ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: A prediction market user made $436k betting on Mad... Because they are, to use a technical term, "dumb as a stump". That's why they would participate despite not having any inside knowledge.

mothballed 43 days ago [–]

Or they are hedging their exposure to an unknown by betting in favor of an event that would be harmful/costly to them.

tptacek 43 days ago | [–]

Those people want prices to accurately track risk, which is what insiders allow.

mothballed 43 days ago | | [–]

Right but they themselves are non-insiders who are rationally betting.

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