Liberal world order / zombie democracy gud types. My brain / pov is just boring realism and recognizing a lot of strategic trendlines is going in PRC favor.
TW fine until mid 2030s, tldr is that is around crossing point where current baked in procurement / strategic investments will give PRC potentially unassailable geostrategic advantages vs US+co. If shit hits fan it will likely be around then.
CCP / at least Xi will be magnanmous because he's just a dove / nice boy. But war is war, no one really controls escalation, gaza is not first choice (especially for softie like Xi) but when ability to do a TW gaza, it is on the table and sometimes inevitable result from escalation dynamics.
How postwar TW gets treated depends on nature of capitulation, i.e. hearts and minds vs pacfication, if PRC paid high price in blood then domestic audience will want blood. But most of effort is patriotic education, i.e. school curriculum pro PRC material and next gen sentiment will automatically shift. Mass reeducation wasn't neccessary in HK who was broken relatively bloodlessly, and now new gen of kids shaped from PRC textbooks are going to have different brains than those shaped by British whose position is going to continue getting clowned on in public messaging until it becomes new norm. But would the extra intransient elements be whisked to mainland for re3ducation, probably - explicitly endorsed by PRC french ambassador at one point.
Ultimately how TW seperatist gets treated is matter of petty PRC bloodlust and local TW bloodlust. As with political jockeying during upheaval, anticipate a lot of pro seperatist TWers simply getting bumped off by local internicine factional violence for getting TW into shitfest in first place. The amount of organized crime influence in TW is too damn high, and all of them know they can instantly transform from gangster to legitimate political power post occupation by getting on Beijings good side, and some are actively being groomed for the role via United Front, see triad leading Chinese Unification Promotion Party (CUPP). They're going to be bashing skulls on behalf of Beijing.
TBH whatever comes, comes. What I want to see in context to what I think is coming: IMO US/PRC bipolarity. The most favourable result for the world is to have 2 alternative, comprehensive tech stacks to develop from instead of depending on whims of single hegemon who controls entire tech tree. PRC/US/developed west will be fine, as in they can collapse/decline so far, but not to subsistent developing country levels due to capita accumulation. They can continue to jockey for podium positions. All the poors need to buy cheap Chinese renewables and capital equipment and up their development game which has never been more accessible. For the big players, peaceful transition / handover of regional hegemony / spheres of influence but that's a tall ask.
TW fine until mid 2030s, tldr is that is around crossing point where current baked in procurement / strategic investments will give PRC potentially unassailable geostrategic advantages vs US+co. If shit hits fan it will likely be around then.
CCP / at least Xi will be magnanmous because he's just a dove / nice boy. But war is war, no one really controls escalation, gaza is not first choice (especially for softie like Xi) but when ability to do a TW gaza, it is on the table and sometimes inevitable result from escalation dynamics.
How postwar TW gets treated depends on nature of capitulation, i.e. hearts and minds vs pacfication, if PRC paid high price in blood then domestic audience will want blood. But most of effort is patriotic education, i.e. school curriculum pro PRC material and next gen sentiment will automatically shift. Mass reeducation wasn't neccessary in HK who was broken relatively bloodlessly, and now new gen of kids shaped from PRC textbooks are going to have different brains than those shaped by British whose position is going to continue getting clowned on in public messaging until it becomes new norm. But would the extra intransient elements be whisked to mainland for re3ducation, probably - explicitly endorsed by PRC french ambassador at one point.
Ultimately how TW seperatist gets treated is matter of petty PRC bloodlust and local TW bloodlust. As with political jockeying during upheaval, anticipate a lot of pro seperatist TWers simply getting bumped off by local internicine factional violence for getting TW into shitfest in first place. The amount of organized crime influence in TW is too damn high, and all of them know they can instantly transform from gangster to legitimate political power post occupation by getting on Beijings good side, and some are actively being groomed for the role via United Front, see triad leading Chinese Unification Promotion Party (CUPP). They're going to be bashing skulls on behalf of Beijing.