Hi. I am the author. If anyone is interested in following my writing, especially those not often on LessWrong, consider subscribing to my Substack: https://tomasbjartur.substack.com/
I plan to mirror any future fiction there.
I haven't written much but my next-best stories are likely these:
Great article. I'd love to read the work you mention here if it exists:
> I read a work of great insight on the corrosive effect of irony on American culture, critiquing it as a kind of anesthesia poisoning the pop cultural artifacts out of which the American soul is now woven.
Your writing style reminds me a lot of the titular short story in "Liberation Day" by George Saunders. I really hope you stick with writing because I think it is quite good.
Hi Tomas! I wanted to ask: is the name "Arden Vox" significant?
Aarden in Dutch means "earth" or "earthly", and Vox in Latin means "voice." So his name kinda means "voice of Earth" -- which seems appropriate, given his motivation for working on The Project.
No. The joke there is "Ardent Voice", and the slight connotations of Vox populi: as he is both acting unilaterally for everyone and thinks they are him. And of course this famous phrase: Vox populi, vox Dei – "The voice of the people is the voice of God".
Esther is just a reference to the novel I Smell
Esther Williams, which I was reading when I was writing the story. And it is referenced in the DFW essay the protagonist inverted the message of.
As for Krishna, I just thought the line "granting me an unwariness that allows me to ask such things of Krishna" was amusing, so named him Krishna.
I'd read the novel! I think there's room for more character development, and the neat tie-ups/references back to Krishna's ambitions, Blood Meridian, etc. would be more impactful across chapters in something longer form.
Motivation comes from "this stuff is nuts, but it could work"
Meaning from: "That was nuts, but it worked"
Between the two, it's a chore to get a bunch of homsaps to agree on exactly what is nuts OR what's possible. AI could definitely help with sanity checking the contentious stuff without always giving great reasons so that we may cross it off either of two lists quick.
(Governments need a third list for prioritising the new instances of Thomas Midgley Jr to put in the airlock)
This is so great, absolutely love the wry inner monologue style:
> There is little less interesting than another man's drug trip. Unfortunately, he's both Arden Vox and my boss, so I try my best to appear fascinated.
This is absolutely enthralling. It's one of the best pieces of writing I've had the pleasure of enjoying in quite some time. I keep laughing while grimacing and looking inward. The vocabulary is exceptional, too. Really well done.
It kind of reminds me of Krazam's YouTube skits, but in long-form writing.
EDIT: I kind of wanted more from the ending, though. It wrapped up surprisingly quick.
I think this is definitely drawing inspiration from his writing (especially the Bay Area House Party posts; latest in the series, with the previous at the top: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/sources-say-bay-area-house-...). Just curious, but why would that make you hesitate?
Assuming this is fiction... A good friend of mine is a professional writer. I learned from her that most of what is presented to us, readers, as fiction is really not so far removed from what really happened.
Yeah: We've seen some AI-related companies/CEOs acting as if they are heroes deeply conflicted by the ramifications of their own superpowers, inviting us to imagine their product might be too awesome for mere mortal hands, and agonizing over how they might make bajillions of dollars for savvy investors that [BUY] [BUY] [BUY] today... but at what figurative cost!?
Im enjoying reading this but struggling with the fact that the average number of words per sentence nears 150. I exaggerate, of course. But please, use periods.
There is a lot of unmet demand for AI researchers that don't seem completely crazy. The Manhattan Project, people are wearing suits and ties, they're all aligned with the broader goals of the nation, the madmen who are proposing super bombs with 100 megatons are being corralled into relative containment. At a certain point in history, the development of nuclear power and thus nuclear weapons became inevitable, but so far we've managed to live with this technology without an apocalypse. But in AI development it sometimes seems like every other person is an Edward Teller. There are limits, I think, to the benefits of the open-mindedness of the Silicon Valley culture.
I'm glad to see some satirization of the woe-is-me-for-making-hundreds-of-thousands-under-capitalism flavor of techbro in the first few paragraphs. Insufferable archetype.
I also work in AI as a software engineer. I feel bad about what's happening but I'm just getting by and AI is ultimately a threat to my career too. My younger truck driver cousin is doing much better than me financially. He didn't go to university, didn't rack up university debt, didn't have to work nights and weekends for 15 years.
My main problem isn't AI though, it's the structure of the anti-competitive tech sector; which is itself driven by the structure of the monetary system in which it operates.
AI is just yet another tool, like crypto, and other distractions which may be used to further disenfranchise me and others. I don't feel bad about other people because I've been a victim myself and as a tech person, I also get the privilege of being labelled as part of the oppressor class, while being oppressed by them... While working one of the most competitive and mentally-taxing jobs in the history of humanity... Seeing the harms, understanding the problems, seeing the solutions but being so powerless that I'm literally forced to work for the oppressor.
I feel too much pain to feel any guilt. I can totally relate to the comment about 'nice colleagues' but I understand it's a very superficial concept, unfortunately. Our world is so dystopian, even kindness is turned into a weapon. Their kindness is partly what holds this incredibly violent system together as it strengthens bonds between the elites which protect the system. Kindness, kinship and filter bubbles combine to form a moat around a global monopoly on power, violence and opportunities; causing the most unjust, asymmetric treatment of humans in the history of mankind. Topped with layer upon layer of gaslighting which looks more and more disturbing and unbelievable as you move down the social hierarchy and lose your voice and power. We have a system where every person lives in a different reality and yet pretend to live in the same reality. People communicate with words but nobody shares the same understanding of the words; that's how bad the situation is.
> My younger truck driver cousin is doing much better than me financially. He didn't go to university, didn't rack up university debt, didn't have to work nights and weekends for 15 years.
As someone that works in software for the transportation sector, I find it hard to believe this generalizes for the population of each profession. The last few years have been really rough for the transportation business, with rates near rock bottom. Combine this with having to be on the road all the time, the lifestyle of being on the road for a lot of drivers, and you couldn't pay me to do it. I'm quite happy working from the quiet home office.
I'm a bit hesitant to comment. I relate to some of what you're saying some of the time. Don't compare yourself to others. It's great your cousin is doing well but having more money ("doing well financially") shouldn't be a benchmark, that is a distraction. If you've been a software engineer for 15 years you're probably doing ok.
> the most unjust, asymmetric treatment of humans in the history of mankind.
Things are not perfect but I think we're very far from the worst in history. Things used to be way worse for most humans for most of the history of mankind. I would say unfortunately we aren't going straight "up and to the right" in terms of human happiness, well being, a better world, but that's the nature of things, there are ups and downs. I think things can and will still work out (climate, geo-politics, AI, economy etc.) if we do our little bits. Look for the good things and we'll work on the bad things.
Getting less screen time and more time with people and outdoors can help with perspective. It's easy to get sucked in doom and gloom on the Internet. Happens to me.
People do abuse words but I think we can still communicate just fine. We just need to do a better job of explaining in detail what we're talking about.
It's interesting that you talk of yourself as being the oppressor class while thinking of yourself of being oppressed. I think that shows the limits of this line of thinking. Most would probably consider you "elite" as well. We're all just people I think is the easy answer there. I'm not jealous for a second of any "elite", I'm sure they have the same human struggles (or even worse) as all of us.
Hope you can get over your pain, try and get some help if that makes sense to you.
I appreciate the comment. You're right, things have been worse for certain people.
I'm definitely not 'elite' even though I've been a software engineer for 15 years, I was very unfortunate. Just imagine doing everything right but everything that's outside of your control going terribly wrong. That's what happened to me. I know others in the industry who had it worse but there is no consistency in experience.
The fact that you assume that because I've been a software engineer for 15 years, that it means I wasn't struggling financially the whole time is telling. It's what I meant when I said that we speak the same words but they don't mean the same thing. You assume software engineer means someone who is well-off. You don't know what country I'm from. I tell you, if you're outside of the US, the experience of being a software engineer has been VERY different. I'm based in Australia but I lived in Europe for several years (which was a horrible idea career-wise).
I have a friend from India. I'm jealous of him. His salary relative to cost of living is incredible. He can live like a king in his own country. I had some colleagues from Poland; they can buy their own houses/apartments working remote and living in their own countries. Meanwhile, I don't have the legal right to own property in those cheap countries, not even mentioning language barriers. I can't afford a deposit on a house in my country. I could never afford. Impossible to find a house or even apartment under $1 million. I've been living paycheck to paycheck. I struggled hard and only just managed to save like $30k in assets over 15 years working nights and most weekends on side projects. I'm running like 5 full-featured, working side projects concurrently none of them making money currently. I did get passive income from one of them for about 3 years but then was basically cheated out of it by a whole group of powerful people in crypto sector. Literally a conspiracy to discredit and defame me within my community, without any apparent justification and no basis in fact; just before COVID happened; I became somewhat paranoid because of this... Then COVID and ensuing political environment just poured fuel on the fire.
> I'm running like 5 full-featured, working side projects concurrently none of them making money currently.
Just stop. Turn them off. Don’t renew the domains. People think that nothing should ever disappear from the internet, ever, but they can either pay you or shout into the void. You owe the tech world nothing.
I can't because one of those is a low-code/no-code platform which I've used to build and run my 6th startup with a co-founder who relies on me... And it works very well. I mentally cannot abandon a project that works better than alternatives. I cannot justify it to myself. If it sucked, I would easily abandon it. But it's very good, flexible and reliable so I cannot find the motivation to give up. It's a weird situation where it would require more effort from me to give up than to keep it running.
There needs be a reason to give up something. I cannot find any such reason. If I gave up on it, my entire worldview would collapse and I don't know what monster I would turn into.
>You're right, things have been worse for certain people.
I mean, in a historical context, things have been worse for almost everybody except a tiny percentage of the population and even they had issue that you treat easily today. For example if you're based in the AU, then you have affordable healthcare without the risk of bankruptcy. You don't have parasites. You don't have infections. Even though you feel broke, you live as well as or better than the historical merchant class.
>Meanwhile, I don't have the legal right to own property in those cheap countries
I mean, this is part of why housing is cheap in those countries. Treat housing like an asset, and don't be surprised why it's expensive.
From what little I know about the late history of the Roman Empire, the stirrup thing had nothing to do with it. In late antiquity, Roman soldiers and "barbarian" soldiers were not very different.
Here's an introduction to the scholarly debate about that:
Also, ancient concrete recipes had little to do with it either. Modern construction usually uses steel rebar, which corrodes, because it costs less and lasts long enough. (Most buildings get torn down because they're functionally obsolete.) People who really care about longevity could use stainless steel rebar if they're willing to pay for it. More about that:
Rebar is essential for concrete beams. Something has to provide tensile strength. Roman concrete was usually used in pure compression.
Epoxy-coated rebar turned out to be a dud idea. One scratch in the epoxy, or a cut end, or a weld, lets water in. It's now banned in Quebec and being looked at elsewhere.
The Oregon Department of Transportation has been using stainless steel rebar for bridges that cross salt water. Seems to be working out well. Steel cost is 5x-6x ordinary rebar, but the long life is worth it.
There's now stainless steel plated rebar, which is a tougher coating than epoxy. Not clear how that will work out.
> There is no moat in any profession outside of entrenched wealth or guns at the moment
That's just not true at all.
Plumbers and electricians and carpenters are not going anywhere. A residential plumber will not have their job automated this or next decade, at best they'll have some fancier tools to play with.
No one expected natural language to be solved in 2020. At the time the smart money was on 20 to 80 years. Many people are still acting like it's not.
Things happen not at all and then all at once.
We have the cheap humanoid platforms coming out of China and they cost six months minimum wage salary in the developed world. Once a model is developed that can use those platforms to match humans for simple tasks we will see the hollowing out of all unskilled physical labor overnight.
ELIZA passed the Turing test in the 60s. That's not a statement of technological progress towards AI, that's a statement on 1) the uselessness of the Turing test, which has been known for decades and 2) the gullibility of the human psyche when it comes to assigning intelligence to anything that can mimic human communication patterns.
Even Turing didn't respect the "Turing test", and your willingness to ignore reality in order to defend such a useless metric on the path to AI marks you as one of the gullible ones.
Not quickly at least, but technology can gradually reduce the labor content of a plumbing job thanks to things like solderlerss fittings, plastic tubing etc. For carpenters, prefab assemblies made in automated factories, etc.
The biggest risk they face is perhaps competition from unskilled workers who can do trades by just wearing Meta AR glasses and following instructions from an AI.
Of course you’d still need training on how to work with your hands but it would cut down on the need for years of experience and planning.
This reads like someone who is quite out of touch with the trades. A large number of states implement right to work laws that discourage union membership. I could go out and get a framer job today (and with the current immigration crackdown probably have one by the end of the day). Having worked as a framer before college, it will be incredibly long before these jobs have any level of automation (a thought which gives me comfort when I consider my own job prospects).
However, I'm thankful everyday that I get to sit in an A/C office and type on a computer. Framing is hard work and ruthless. Most people won't last a day doing it because of how challenging it is.
Who is going to buy the houses? Who is going to own the land? Not many people need a plumber. Look back some decades. We can't all just work in the trades. It doesn't make sense from a supply and demand stance.
A decrease in quality of life is an acceptable cost to stay alive. In a very different economy, people will just fix their own toilet with scavenged or bartered parts.
My point was that humans can do most residential plumbing tasks easily, and the effort and cost involved in learning and acquiring tools might outweigh the desire to pay for a service in a future economy with scarce labor opportunities.
Also, in such a bleak future, there might not be running water where you currently own property.
But really you're answering your own question. The economy is not a zero sum game- It adapts. Why do our current jobs exist? Because somebody is paying for what we produce. Then we take our pay and buy what other people produce. There could be an equilibrium today (or 20 years ago) where nobody has any jobs but there are generally feedback loops that help get to a functioning economy.
It's not impossible that unemployment will go up but it's not as simple as LLMs will take our jobs. There's always more jobs to do and there are always some other equilibrium points. And it's not even clear LLMs are taking our jobs, one might argue that they'll end up creating more jobs.
>Why do our current jobs exist? Because somebody is paying for what we produce. Then we take our pay and buy what other people produce.
Because ample property and resources exist that require your (human) labor to turn into products.
If for example pumping water to AI data centers is more profitable than using it on crops and drinking water "the economy" would gladly watch you dehydrate and die. Economic short circuits such as war or governments have to step in and ensure basic human needs are met or a collapse of society can occur, and such things have occurred in the past, so this just isn't some kind of hypothetical.
Just remember there is no need for you in the post labor economy. If rich robot owners get the labor they need from other sources they'll gladly exterminate you and live in a much less populated planet.
> This reads like someone who is quite out of touch
No, it’s Indiana. They practice self-sabotage across many industries in the belief that the big-city folks just across the border will take all the jobs. Chicago, Cincinnati, Louisville. All of them just across the state line. Of course, very little thought about why large metros are just across the state line…
Power systems have a long way to go in terms of integration with data. One can envisage an inherently safe system whereby a data signal is superimposed on the wire (related to data-over-power) and every power source continually interrogates its loads and conditions on the wire are being continually monitored. Any unsafe situation will result in a shutdown of supply.
I'm describing a system that goes well beyond existing breakers and earth leakage: one that is able to fully map the connections between components, know the topology of the system and compare actual and expected behaviour. The idea is that any dummy could do electrical wiring, as the system itself would make it impossible to create an unsafe situation.
Cost would be higher to start with, but with economies of scale reducing the difference, my guess is that the higher cost of components could be offset by lower installation cost and the increased safety.
What you are talking about is info overload and break down of "shared stories" as content explodes faster than there are people or time to consume it all. In Economics they will tell you what happens when Supply drastically overshoots Demand. But economics is too young and immature a field to tell you how to find meaning and how "to fit or be useful".
For that you need the Philosophy or Religion.
So here is a useful lecture from an actual Philosopher on Detachment and Flourishing cause "there is no obligation to fit or be useful or understand everything" - https://oyc.yale.edu/philosophy/phil-181/lecture-8
If you are the type who feels the need to fit - go through the previous lecture on Attachment and Flourishing.
You write like David Foster Wallace, and I mean that as a compliment.
Have you read The City & the City? BBC Two also did a miniseries version, which I thought would be unfilmable and even unwatchable, but somehow it works, likely due to China Miéville himself serving as a consultant on the production.
For those who aren’t familiar with the work, I advise you to avoid spoilers, which are present in the reference links below.
>despite having some FartCoin which has been doing very well lately, shockingly well, this FartCoin. I wonder if it will continue to "moon" to the point where I can quit my job and become a VC and go on podcasts in which I will try to downplay the source of my initial capital so as to maintain some illusion that this economy makes any kind of sense at all to me or anyone else for that matter. Though perhaps by the time I am doing podcasts I will be so far gone I will just own it and maintain that it required great genius to have foreseen the rise of FartCoin and allocated capital to same.
Fartcoin hasn't been doing that well though, I had to check the date of the article and it is recent. Maybe he got in Fartcoin long ago in early Nov. 2024? 200x since then but only a 2x since the end of Nov. 2024.
I plan to mirror any future fiction there.
I haven't written much but my next-best stories are likely these:
The Maker of MIND: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H4kadKrC2xLK24udn/the-maker-...
The Liar and The Scold https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/duF4Qh9pn7Y5imhsm/the-liar-a...
Of the two, I prefer The Maker of MIND. Both got similar karma on LessWrong and were written ~2021.