If you're insinuating that crime is not actually down and statistics are merely lying, then you are mistaken.
Crime, pretty much everywhere in the US and by many different metrics, has been falling for over 3 decades.
It makes sense. Crime is getting harder and harder to committ with the advent of the Internet and new surveillance technology. Crime is, like all things in life, a risk-reward calculus.
Most criminals aren't criminals because they innately like crime. Rather, they choose crime because they think the reward is worth the risk. If the reward falls, or if the risk is too great, many won't turn to crime.
With newer social services and things like the ACA, there's less reason to committ crime. You're often better off just... not... And getting help through provided channels. And then if you do committ crime, it's extremely likely you get caught, even for small crimes.
> Most criminals aren't criminals because they innately like crime. Rather, they choose crime because they think the reward is worth the risk. If the reward falls, or if the risk is too great, many won't turn to crime.
This "noble savage" view of criminals is often repeated in polite society but is pretty far removed from the reality of actual criminals. There's very little risk-reward calculus involved. Very little impulse control. Very little reasoning about whether they're better off committing crime versus getting help.
> And then if you do committ crime, it's extremely likely you get caught, even for small crimes.
Small crimes absolutely go uncaught and unpunished as a matter of routine. Most years, in DC, a full third of homicides go unsolved[0], so even the worst crime in one of the most highly funded police departments in the most closely watched city and the capital of a globe-spanning empire often go uncaught. The US isn't a police state, as much as some claim.
Or, in a police state, the point isn't solving crimes.
In my city, any protest over a half dozen people gets a police response. However they may show up a couple hours late to you being robbed, but will probably tell you to go to their website and file a report they won't follow up on.
Paradoxically, as you reach more and more of a police state, the point of the police isn't to solve or prevent crimes. It's to use violence against threats to the police state.
“With newer social services and things like the ACA, there's less reason to committ crime.”
Crime was certainly never driven by the cost of private health insurance. Rather, crime is driven by things like alcohol and demographics, policing or lack there of, surely not by aggregate health care spending lol.
Medical debt is one of the most common kinds of debt in America. Debt and poverty are absolutely correlated to crime rates. So is anxiety over bills. Untreated mental or physical health issues can come into play as well.
I’ve known criminals, and a lot of people with huge debts, even known a few people who have had to declare bankruptcy. I assure you nobody is robbing or stealing or raping or killing people over medical debt. Student loans on the other hand…
> Debt and poverty are absolutely correlated to crime rates.
Correlation is not causation. In this case, the same factors that make one more prone to criminal activity also make them more prone to poverty; therefore, you cannot solve criminality by solving poverty, because the confounding factor is still present afterwards.
A man was released from prison after his murder conviction was overturned to great fanfare by the Innocence Project. He received $4.1m for his troubles. A few years later, he killed another man over a $1200 drug deal gone bad[0].
Do you really believe that people are committing crimes in order to make money to pay medical bills? Breaking Bad is a work of fiction.
> Do you really believe that people are committing crimes in order to make money to pay medical bills? Breaking Bad is a work of fiction.
I think the vast, vast majority of people are committing crime to make money, and I think your singular counter example, which isn't really a counter example, is worthless.
Yes, SOME people are just bad and will always commit crime. Some.
However, most criminals do it for monetary gain.
Why do people even sell drugs? Surely, if their goal is to be evil and just make a lot of people hooked on heroin, they'd just give it away for free right?
Well, that isn't their goal. Their goal is to make money.
> Crime was certainly never driven by the cost of private health insurance.
Its a simple question - is crime motivated by money or not?
If you answer yes, then you're wrong - things like the ACA that lessen financial burden MUST lead to less crime over time.
If you answer no, then you're probably not reasonable. Who legitimately believes that crime isn't caused by money issues?
> crime is driven by things like alcohol and demographics,
Demographics absolutely do not drive crime, otherwise you have a broken world view. Being of a different demographic is a SYMPTOM, not the cause.
Being black does not cause crime, or being in a zip code does not cause crime. Being poor does, that zip code having poor education does, that zip code providing no opportunities does.
