>Stock prices are pretty well disconnected from real day-to-day economics that normal people deal with.
No, something happened post covid. Previously you could predict consumer sentiment pretty well by combining several economic figures, but after covid that model broke.
But stock price alone has never been a strong signal about consumer sentiment, pre-covid or post. It's a strong signal about investor sentiment, but the things that are good for stock prices have always been very different from the things that are good for regular people.
This isn't that surprising. Stock prices are pretty well disconnected from real day-to-day economics that normal people deal with.