Yeah but that last paragraph is the crux of it: No one is using Grok. They have no path to profitability. They have very low traction among consumers, and even lower traction among enterprises. Their CEO seems to think that copy-pasting code into a web browser is a good strategy for attracting programmers. Its most common usage is on X where people say "@grok is this true", which is fine, except its unclear if anyone is actually paying for that. Over the past week, OpenRouter has been processing ~125M x-ai/grok-3 tokens per day; compare that to anthropic/claude-sonnet-4 @ ~45B/day and openai/gpt-4.1-mini @ ~5B/day.
Yeah its only one somewhat specialized source, but its a big one. The only time anyone talks about Grok or xAI is their now-annual accomplishment of taking the intelligence crown, for about a month, before OpenAI comes out and beats them, then Anthropic comes out and beats them, then Gemini comes out and beats them, then DeepSeek crashes the stock market because china scary, then we repeat again. These things are so damn fungible now that it startles me that any investors would touch any of these companies at their current valuations.
The future where Claude/ChatGPT/DeepSeek become the next iPhone/Android/Huawei is only going to happen if these companies make hardware and traditional software operating systems. OpenAI is trying. But, by the way, one of those companies on the right side is already doing that and has a world-leading AI strategy (Google), so I'm not convinced the status quo is as disruptable as some people think.
I wonder to what extent it matters… but, Musk has mostly lead companies where he comes with a new competitor against incredibly stagnant competition, right? (banking, cars, rockets). He seems to have a strategy of convincing some young engineers to work really hard on a neat new idea. That, combined with the stagnant competition, produces a sudden dramatic leap past the competition that gets people interested.
LLMs were already the hot-shit new tech that was attracting a ton of excited talent. What’s xAI got to offer that OpenAI doesn’t? Training off a mediocre social media network I guess.
The difference is, his stagnant competition in the AI space is way, way less stagnant than Boeing and Ford. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are not stagnant; they're the hottest companies out there paying million dollar salaries.
Yeah its only one somewhat specialized source, but its a big one. The only time anyone talks about Grok or xAI is their now-annual accomplishment of taking the intelligence crown, for about a month, before OpenAI comes out and beats them, then Anthropic comes out and beats them, then Gemini comes out and beats them, then DeepSeek crashes the stock market because china scary, then we repeat again. These things are so damn fungible now that it startles me that any investors would touch any of these companies at their current valuations.
The future where Claude/ChatGPT/DeepSeek become the next iPhone/Android/Huawei is only going to happen if these companies make hardware and traditional software operating systems. OpenAI is trying. But, by the way, one of those companies on the right side is already doing that and has a world-leading AI strategy (Google), so I'm not convinced the status quo is as disruptable as some people think.