>market cap of gold is now around $25T. If bitcoin matched that, it would put it at $1.5M/BTC
Market cap of gold is ~$22T. If bitcoin matched that, it would put it at 1.05M/BTC
>based on estimated 4M BTC lost forever
This is irrelevant to the conversation — even "lost" bitcoin are still included in the marketcap calculation of an asset.
>adoption of new technology generally follows an S-curve
I accept your premise, but IMHO bitcoin is still just getting started.
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Based on my bitcoin usage (since 2012), bitcoin seems to have doubled approximately every eighteen months. Under this anecdotal observation, it could be just five years to $1M [0]
[0] but of course past performance doesn't predict future [1]
[1] Time IN the market beats timING the market — excited to keep waiting =P
> This is irrelevant to the conversation — even "lost" bitcoin are still included in the marketcap calculation of an asset.
If assets are destroyed or forever lost, they essentially no longer exist and so have no effect on the market cap.
If all but 1 bitcoin were lost, the total supply would then be 1 bitcoin. From then on, the 21M figure would just be an arbitrary number with no relevance to real world supply and demand. The world would be fighting over 100M sats.
> I accept your premise, but IMHO bitcoin is still just getting started.
Agree completely. It's clear from this website alone (filled with people of above-average technical knowledge and intelligence) that most of the world has no idea what it really is yet (they think they know). People who understand both the inherent flaws of Keynesian economics and the technological aspects of bitcoin are few and far between. But both are becoming increasingly obvious as each year passes, along with bitcoin's robustness for which time is only true test.
Market cap of gold is ~$22T. If bitcoin matched that, it would put it at 1.05M/BTC
>based on estimated 4M BTC lost forever
This is irrelevant to the conversation — even "lost" bitcoin are still included in the marketcap calculation of an asset.
>adoption of new technology generally follows an S-curve
I accept your premise, but IMHO bitcoin is still just getting started.
----
Based on my bitcoin usage (since 2012), bitcoin seems to have doubled approximately every eighteen months. Under this anecdotal observation, it could be just five years to $1M [0]
[0] but of course past performance doesn't predict future [1]
[1] Time IN the market beats timING the market — excited to keep waiting =P