There's nothing in my comment to "exactly" in support of your point. If the US backs away from Europe it may be more likely to encourage Ukrainian surrender. Russia may be more likely to attack Poland. Germany may be more likely to develop its own nuclear deterrent. Or none of these things may happen. Extrapolating from tariffs to world peace demands a bit more than loose speculation at the continental level.
I doubt Europe would be that cocky without a full support from their "big bro" from across the ocean.
As for attacking Poland - that sounds quite uncalled for: Poland doesn't have a meaningful share of Russian natives living there historically for the Poland to start oppressing them to the point Russia would start a war against Poland. I can't even think of any reason why Russia would attack Poland.
There is no modern international norm where a nation can use military force to invade or interfere with another nation because of ethnic natives in that nation being mistreated. This is another russian talking point that’s used as a justification for their intentional aggression and it has nothing to do with why they actually invade their neighbors.
