Curious if you've closed out your position yet? The tricky thing about the market is both entering and exiting at the correct time.
I have strong knowledge of this is space and don't invest in it exactly for that reason. LLMs are great, but the hype is greater, and I personally don't want to have my income and my investments correlated.
NVIDIA may be selling a lot, but their P/E ratio is nearly 80, so that price isn't fundamentals alone. All we need is this ages equivalent to "perceptrons can't XOR" and there will be a fast correction.
This could go on a long time and I wouldn't be surprised if NVIDIA doubled over the next few years. After all crypto is still doing well despite everyone more or less agreeing it's a scam. I can also imagine world were something is revealed in a few months and everyone flees from "AI".
The only thing I know about the stock market is arbitrage theory still holds, and the future value of any stock tends to be it's current price + risk free rate over time.
I saw NVIDIA as the next big thing due to AI 6 years ago back when their stock price was dictated by gaming and crypto. I was working for a hyperscaler and I was confident they were undervalued, along with Microsoft and AMD. And then I sold all 3 during COVID because I realized the exact problem you are saying - I had no idea when to sell and ultimately I was happy with my gains. Whoops I guess.
Now all serious investing money just goes into index funds and I don't have to worry.
Apple had a net income of ~$100B last year (and will in all likelihood have a similar amount this year) and a market cap of ~$3T.
Nvidia is likely to have a net income of around $50-60B this year and has a market cap of around $2.4T.
It doesn't take that much growth being priced in for the stock to suddenly seem reasonably priced.
Yeah buying NVDA right _now_ could be the equivalent of buying TSLA at $400.
Since literally everyone and their dog now knows AI is the next big thing and NVDA is selling all the shovels to the miners, the contrarian in me (don't believe reddit OR HN) suggests its a good time to stay away.
There should be growth stocks buried in the Russell 5000 somewhere that would be much better bets at this point.
I have strong knowledge of this is space and don't invest in it exactly for that reason. LLMs are great, but the hype is greater, and I personally don't want to have my income and my investments correlated.
NVIDIA may be selling a lot, but their P/E ratio is nearly 80, so that price isn't fundamentals alone. All we need is this ages equivalent to "perceptrons can't XOR" and there will be a fast correction.
This could go on a long time and I wouldn't be surprised if NVIDIA doubled over the next few years. After all crypto is still doing well despite everyone more or less agreeing it's a scam. I can also imagine world were something is revealed in a few months and everyone flees from "AI".
The only thing I know about the stock market is arbitrage theory still holds, and the future value of any stock tends to be it's current price + risk free rate over time.