I don't think it makes sense to expect XMPP to "make an impact" ever, if by that you mean "to spontaneously become the next dominant network" (or it already is, under the guise of WhatsApp, bar the federated aspect). The forces in presence are too uneven and the modern internet is too consolidated to permit that to happen (even google cannot dislodge WhatsApp/Messenger).
IMO, what does matter for XMPP's future is that it remains appealing to a growing niche of users who want to be in control, for whom self/local-hosting is important (XMPP excels at that), who care about privacy (OMEMO is state of the art, and XMPP offers gentler alternatives where PFS isn't desired), and who understand the benefits of federation for resilience. This niche will grow naturally as more and more people get deceived by every monopolistic network being doomed to grow beyond a threshold of sustainability and implode as a result. By that time, it only matters that there are enough sufficiently well maintained and user-friendly clients on all platforms for those "super-users" to embark their peers (which is currently largely the case).
This is how I ended-up here, in fact. I refused to join WhatsApp because I was tired of previous forced migrations from protocols I thought were "too big to fail" (MSN, Skype, …), WhatsApp was already banned in some of the countries I was travelling to for work, and I so, after a failed errand with Matrix, I rediscovered XMPP 10 years after I had my first account on it. Today I have about a hundred contacts there, and the less tech-literate of my peers notice no practical difference in usability or features compared to something like WhatsApp: it just works.
By "make an impact" I was thinking maybe being more popular than either Matrix or IRC (both of which I use regularly, and both of which I would prefer XMPP to) not "spontaneously become the next dominant network"
IMO, what does matter for XMPP's future is that it remains appealing to a growing niche of users who want to be in control, for whom self/local-hosting is important (XMPP excels at that), who care about privacy (OMEMO is state of the art, and XMPP offers gentler alternatives where PFS isn't desired), and who understand the benefits of federation for resilience. This niche will grow naturally as more and more people get deceived by every monopolistic network being doomed to grow beyond a threshold of sustainability and implode as a result. By that time, it only matters that there are enough sufficiently well maintained and user-friendly clients on all platforms for those "super-users" to embark their peers (which is currently largely the case).
This is how I ended-up here, in fact. I refused to join WhatsApp because I was tired of previous forced migrations from protocols I thought were "too big to fail" (MSN, Skype, …), WhatsApp was already banned in some of the countries I was travelling to for work, and I so, after a failed errand with Matrix, I rediscovered XMPP 10 years after I had my first account on it. Today I have about a hundred contacts there, and the less tech-literate of my peers notice no practical difference in usability or features compared to something like WhatsApp: it just works.