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2022 Fall Foliage Prediction Map (smokymountains.com)
59 points by nkurz on Sept 29, 2022 | hide | past | favorite | 28 comments


Warning: always get a second opinion/source. I planned a trip to north Georgia based off of this exact website three years ago and it ended up being about 3-4 weeks before the leaves turned.

Worst website ever.


Agreed.

I'm in Michigan. This map seems to change all of Michigan to Peak at the same time, which absolutely does not happen.

It varies as you move south in the state, typically a couple weeks apart from way northern Michigan to down by Detroit. Heck, I've been in the Upper Peninsula at peak leaves and then they started falling, gone south a few days later to the northern Lower Peninsula and things were just starting to pop, then home down near Detroit almost everything was still green.

That's... just how it works in Michigan. But that's not what this map shows. And therefore I've no reason to believe it.


I think it's a pretty awesome website! Maybe just the worst data ever?

It has a link for you to submit your observations and improve the data.


predictions aren’t always accurate


If you can make it to the Smoky Mountains or the Blue Ridge Parkway sometime over the next 20 days, it’s the best time of the year to see the foliage.

Doesn’t hurt to stop in Asheville (NC), Gatlinburg (TN), or Cherokee (NC) briefly either if you have the time.


The Moog store in Asheville has dozens of synths just out and hooked up for visitors to play on their sales floor. Best toy store I've been to in years!


Lovely store, had a blast spending time in there a few years ago. Moog is also employee owned! Asheville in general was a great city to spend time in.


Take a detour into Transylvania County and look for white squirrels.


There are white squirrels?



Oh, wow. We might have one in our neighborhood (in upstate SC). I always assumed it was an albino, but it doesn’t have pink eyes.


Hey Chris! Do you happen to own the sst package?


Yep! The area around Brevard, NC has a native population. They’re really neat to see. I’ve always wondered how they made it from an evolutionary standpoint. They definitely stand out!


Your sibling comment has a link with several theories: The color might be a fluke from a small founding population of squirrels that was just genetically more fit in unrelated ways. Or the biggest threat to squirrels might not be predators but automobiles and the white color increases their visibility especially contrasted against asphalt.

The most interesting theory is that predators like hawks simply don't recognize white animals as prey, which is pretty crazy in my opinion. The page shares an anecdote that sometimes visiting dogs would chase gray squirrels but not the white ones.


Nice I am in South Florida so if I am ever up there I will have to check them out. So they are all legit albino squirrels?


It may be the best time to visit the foliage, but be warned it is the worst time for traffic and crowds.


I love the Smoky Mountains but the traffic is awful.

There are times when it takes 2 hours to go from I-40 to Gatlinburg on TN-66. It's worse than NYC/LA traffic.

Have you ever been up near the Cumberland Gap around this time? I imagine that it's also beautiful but less crowded (I've only ever been there in the summer).


Anyone in Michigan wanna rent an Airbnb with me up north for a hacker house type situation? I wanna head up to explore and get away from the city. I’m thinking of renting a place for a week. Coding. Hiking. Reading. Up for anything!


I live in Vermont, this is not accurate and at least a week ahead of what I'd expect.


> If trees did not shed their leaves, their soft vegetation would certainly freeze during winter time, damaging and, no doubt, killing the tree.

This is just plain wrong, and makes no sense. If the leaves froze and died during the winter, how is this different from the tree losing the leaves to begin with?

Trees lose their leaves to stop the process of drawing water up from the roots through their trunks. If water were to go through the freeze/thaw cycle inside the long "straws" of the tree trunk, the tree would be torn apart from the expansion/contraction cycle of the ice.


About 10 years ago, we had a freak snow storm in early October in the northeast us.

The trees that normally shed their leaves had not done so yet and huge numbers of them suffered serious breaks from the weight of the snow clinging to the leaves.

It was at that point that I realized the purpose of shedding leaves in the winter.

Prior to that I used to think, "Okay, so what if there is LESS sun in the winter time? Why bother shedding leaves when you can pick up some extra energy from winter sunlight? And you don't have to expend the energy rebuilding leaves in the spring.'

My suspicion is that the leaves fall primarily to avoid snow-induced catastrophic breaks and related damage.


How do evergreens do it, then?


Leaves are still mostly green here in the upper Midwest. Just starting to see the traces of orange.


Anyone know how they create the underlying model for visualization, and how often it is updated? If we have a snap cold spell one evening and the leaves fall, does that get reflected in the visualization?


A guy in basement making guesses? See my other comment.


So much for making things accessible to the color-blind.


Serious question: Is the fall foliage visible at all to the colorblind? Is it less vivid, or just downright invisible until the leaves start to die?


This is already off. I would add a week or more to the prediction. We are in the middle of a cold snap but I haven’t seen it affect foliage that much.




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