Yes. So either way, Kuo cannot deduce that M2 Pro wont be on N3. If the revenue is realized later or if the numbers are too low to justify calling it a substantial contrubution to TSMC revenue... same result. Kuo's argument does not seem to hold water. Now, that does not mean the inverse is true and M2 Pro is guaranteed to be on N3. I can only come up with the VR chip as alternative and so far I think nobody else came up with a suggestion.

The current assumption and his prediction, along with alignment on other data inside Supply Chains suggest new MacBook Pro, assuming it uses M2 Pro, would come out in Oct / Nov.

And if New MacBook Pro indeed uses M2 Pro, and M2 Pro uses N3, it would be classified as substantial revenue. Hence his word on M2 Pro wont be on N3.

TSMC isn't normally the one to spin words on substantial contribution to revenue. At least until now it means actual product shipment. As they do get N3 product revenue in terms of pilot project and and part of product R&D.

Edit: There were rumours of Intel being the first customer for N3 with their GPU. Using it as Tiles on their next gen Meteor Lake SoC. Personally I think that is likely the case.

Well dosent Apple usually prepay? Thats normally why they get preferential treatment.

In accrual accounting payment has very little connection to when revenue is recognized. In order for revenue to be recognized the product has to ship.

It's more complicated than this, accounting as a field exists pretty much because there's intricate sets of rules and ways to interpret them. Here, my understanding is a good accountant would say not to recognize the revenue until you consider it shipped -

i.e. if you agree to pay me a bajillion dollars for a time machine with an out clause of no cash if no delivery, that doesn't mean I get to book a bajillion dollars in revenue

over the top example, but this was the general shape of much Enron chicanery, booking speculative revenue based on coming to terms on projects they were in no shape to deliver, so its very much an accounting 'code smell' if 'code smell' meant 'attracts regulators attention'

I think this case is how do you book you paying one billion cash today for a time machine sometime next Tuesday of next year?

Accrual accounting says even if you have the money it’s not “yours” until the product ships.