Let’s estimate the expected value for that $1.5M… My estimate is something less ... | Hacker News

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		jmull on Aug 12, 2022 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: A meteor or alien tech: Harvard professor plans UF... Let’s estimate the expected value for that $1.5M… My estimate is something less than $0.01.

gfodor on Aug 14, 2022 [–]

You have it backwards, you have to calculate the expected value of the mission and see if it’s less than 1.5M.

For example, if odds of success are one in 10k for a discovery worth $1T then it works out.

jmull on Aug 15, 2022 | [–]

I’m afraid we’re taking about the same expected value: odds of success * value of success

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