I made a similar comment before, but what I think will happen is that "Facebook.com" will die, and FB will turn into a digital conglomerate that's made up of acquisitions. They did it with Instagram and with WhatsApp. Facebook knows their core platform (facebook.com) is on it's last legs. They know they have virtually no chance of attracting back the "Young Americans" core demo to use Facebook.com. At this point they are scrambling to acquire and bring in other tech before their core platforms becomes as worthless as MySpace.

It's inevitable that at some point, Facebook the company will part ways with Facebook, the social network. They'll probably rename the company to "FB Inc." or something equally meaningless, ala KFC or FedEx (where the "federal" is no longer apt).

We might even see the name change while the social network is still up and running, resulting in some ridiculous re-brand like "Facebook by FB" (did you know that the actual Express service from Fedex is now called "FedEx Express"? :)

I don’t know how you could say Facebook.com is on its last legs when it is still growing, both in DAUs and MAUs, with 1.9B and 2.9B, respectively.

A fourth of the world population uses it daily, and a third uses it monthly. They are far from dead.

True, I was really only talking about the American market. I will say I think the same will happen in other countries eventually. If you think about it in terms of Digital Churn, first the young folks used Facebook, then the older demo. This churn is lagging in other countries but I feel like it will catch up.

Even in the US, FB is still growing their MAUs, albeit slowly.

Sure, one day that will not be the case. But you can say that for any company out there.

Instagram is dying too, take it from an early(ish) leaver

It depends on how the pivot to prioritizing video works out. I forget who, but one photography YouTuber mentioned good results from adding the occasional video to their Instagram feed. It also boosted their photos. Not good news for people who aren't equipped for or interested in doing video, but it might just work out for them. Especially if they can lure enough people way from YouTube. I'll quit watching someone before I follow them to Instagram, but I don't think I'm representative.

I don't. Many of my friends, who finally left Facebook, are very happy with Instagram. It feels like what Facebook was in 2010, people exchange their Instagram handles instead of phone numbers.

Do you have any kind of stats or even anecdotal evidence to your claim, other than you left ("early" in your own words)?

> Many of my friends, who finally left Facebook, are very happy with Instagram.

Counter-anecdata: Many of my friends are unhappy with Instagram because of the (randomly![1]) filtered timelines, intrusive ads[2], etc.

[1] e.g. I see different timelines on web vs iOS with the same account. It's bafflingly stupid. I just want a chronologically sorted list of post from everyone I follow.

[2] Checking just now, scrolled through 25 timeline entries - 7 of them are ads.

Are they leaving it? Did they identify a replacement they would rather use?

I didn't mean no one had criticisms, maybe "very happy" was an exaggeration. I'm just saying I don't see the exodus the GP thinks is imminent, even on a small scale.

Where dix you leave to?