"The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again."
Though apparently, he was talking about inflation in this case... but the point is, the nature of risk is such that while it works out on average, you still end up with an individual outcome at a fixed point in time which may vary a lot from the expected payoff. Not that I do completely agree with tastybites, but I see the logic.
Didn't John Keynes say:
"The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again."
Though apparently, he was talking about inflation in this case... but the point is, the nature of risk is such that while it works out on average, you still end up with an individual outcome at a fixed point in time which may vary a lot from the expected payoff. Not that I do completely agree with tastybites, but I see the logic.