1. Whether they figure out how to cut costs with driverless automation
2. If not, how many people will keep using them when fiscal discipline is inevitably imposed and prices go up.
They are in a tough spot. Without driverless cars they are a commodity service in a market with low barriers to entry. But no one has yet pulled off the type of driverless they need - no actual human in the car who needs to get paid.
As much as people seem to think "driverless cars" are obviously Uber's future, it's a pretty monumental change to their business model.
It seems that their model now is to own essentially nothing; drivers own the cars and are responsible for 100% of the upkeep/maintenance, costs of insuring, etc. If that changes, where does that leave Uber? Are they going to own the cars? If so, that's a tremendous capital investment, which is something they've specifically avoided as much as possible. If they don't, and they just remain a brand name, then it's likely that someone like Ford/GM/Toyota/whomever will eat their lunch if cars are just on-demand and self-driving. Uber offers very little in that world.
It seems to be w.r.t. self-driving cars Ford et al will just offer "Fords on demand" etc and not need Uber. The self-driving car is the hard part, not the app. Network effects are a lot less of a barrier to entry if you don't need drivers.
1. Whether they figure out how to cut costs with driverless automation
2. If not, how many people will keep using them when fiscal discipline is inevitably imposed and prices go up.
They are in a tough spot. Without driverless cars they are a commodity service in a market with low barriers to entry. But no one has yet pulled off the type of driverless they need - no actual human in the car who needs to get paid.