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I'm not sure that's true.

Andrew Gelman once mentioned that Black Swan events are actually routinely _overpriced_ via the Longshot Bias. [1] He had talked about this in the context of the recent Leicester FC win and the odds on that team. [2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias

[2] http://andrewgelman.com/2016/06/02/30183/


Glass half full/Glass half empy. A bet against the opposite of an overpriced event will be underpriced.


An interesting business idea if not a depressing future.

Doesn't Amazon do this in a way? I've seen prices for kindle books change depending on if I'm logged in or not, and not always in my favor.


Not beyond 14 in my experience.

Honestly, I probably spent far too much time hanging out in parking lots. I grew up in NJ and I am currently 22 in my last year of University so I'm talking about '06-'12 period.


Kids in my town definitely hang out at the much trendier (and overall nicer) outdoor mall that was built on my side of town a few years ago. We have a more traditional mall on the north side of town, but no one I knew growing up would hang out there because it was so far. We hung out at the movie theater instead.


I agree. I've seen a lot of people who have no intention of "settling down" or "having kids" become surprised when their peers who do exactly that become more "successful" (earn more money, move up in job position, etc.). I think making the decision to have kids instills a bit of discipline to get something stable in life.


IIRC there are also studies that suggest employers are more likely to give you raises, promotions, and increased hours if you have a family.


It's anecdotal, but I think my employer does the same thing. If true, it seems strange to reward a person for a personal choice.


vasaulys says> "I think making the decision to have kids instills a bit of discipline to get something stable in life."

I think this is not necessarily so. However...

I've seen a number of persons who have children and who believe your statement (or similar statements, e.g., "Having kids makes you more responsible", etc.) to be true.

And so they promote/hire a younger person who has chosen to pursue a family path rather than a more qualified person with a superior skill set.


I'm surprised that more people don't know about lists, it seems like Twitter doesn't promote it as much as they should.


Weird, I don't even know about Twitter Lists, but then again I don't use Twitter much. It would be very convenient!


That video is fantastic I watched it a week or so ago.

Your explanation also explains why computer performed music is so off. It still has that uncanny valley effect. So when Sony had a computer generate a "Beatles-esque pop song", they still had a human perform and produce it. But at the point there's so much creativity and human-added value on top of it that I don't think its fair to call it computer generated imho.


yes. I can tell you a little more about that, too, since I used to research this stuff and think about it a lot still.

One of my models of music is an external model of a regulated system that parallels and trains our own habits and responses. E.g. a song demonstrates tension and release similar to our own lives. The level of tension in a song before release occurs can inform us how much tension which should accept before performing some release activity.

Music's rhythms also inform the pace of our work. E.g. verse-chorus-verse represents switching between two different activities. Even the pitch of a single note acts as a reference for the amount of intensity of a sensation we should use in our own lives. E.g. thrash metal listeners enjoy sudden shifts into massive intensity and hold it there. Dub step listeners are training themselves for unusual, but rather intense aesthetics leading up to disproportionate release. Classical music tends to be for "long-chain thinkers" tumbling ideas over from various perspectives, e.g. writers and politicans, doctors, not factory workers.

With that as a background, consider that a live instrument is also a physical system with a human controlling it interactively. The live system is a bit different every time. Here's the critical part: the human must listen and provide instantaneous feedback to a varying system in order to present the piece of music as a proper response model of a regulated system. If the player fails to do this, the model communicated by the performance is different.

In open-loop systems, such as a sequencer, there is no (or limited) interaction between the player and the sound, so an incidental model emerges. That incidental model represents an unintended and therefore most likely irrelevant model of how to interact with reality. e.g. it relieves tension where no relief was needed. It lingers too long on an idea, long after a human novelty-seeking circuit has starved.

Some people, e.g. in discussions of unstable filters like the TB-303, chalk up the variations as being different at every performance because the instrument is random... However, they're missing the closed loop portion of the performance, in which the performer reacts to the unpredictability of the instrument in order to maintain the model. In other words, the score and notes are not the music, but the performer's response to the environment the score sets up is the music.

To revivify your uncanny valley observation, the "unstable filter creates variations" crowd has a parallel in Perlin noise used to subtly animate human models to make them not look so dead. However, it's incomplete because they don't use (short-term) feedback to determine when the movement suffices to be convincing. That feedback is the essence of performance.

In theory, computer scientists could implement these feedback models in performance to make the sounds more realistic. They could be used in synthesis, but the playback would still require observation of the listener! Which is possible. Personally, I just prefer playing electronic instruments live over using sequencers. It's only the sounds of electronic music I like, the zaps, peowms, zizzes, pews, and poonshes, etc. I don't care for electronics/computers to perform for me.

If you like this hypothesis, you can find more references on my wiki at: http://www.diydsp.com/index.php?title=Computer_Music_Isolati...


Any reason why this is incompatible with the iPhone 5c?


It requires a 64-bit CPU, which was introduced with the iPhone 5s.


I never knew you could get a job writing automation scripts. That's pretty cool.


Sort of asked before, but does anybody have experience with packet.net as a cloud host?


I think times were a bit different then. People are bracing for a major change to the automotive business between autonomous driving and electric cars.


Exactly. Siemens has already proved it can build motors for electric plane and they could easily become major player in electric vehicle industry.


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