I wonder if you could optimize for reducing the total probe count (at the expense of possibly longer total time, though it may be faster in some cases) by using some sort of "gradient descent".
Start by doing the multi-continent probe, say 3x each. Drop the longest time probes, add probes near the shortest time, and probe once. Repeat this pattern of probe, assess, drop and add closer to the target.
You accumulate all data in your orchestrator, so in theory you don't need to deliberately issue multiple probes each round (except for the first) to get statistical power. I would expect this to "chase" the real location continuously instead of 5 discrete phases.
I just watched the Veritasium video on potentials and vector fields - the latency is a scalar potential field of sorts, and you could use it to derive a latency gradient.
Yes, most likely there are multiple algorithms that could be used to get better results with fewer probes, but I'm not smart enough to do the math and implement them.
How about: maybe some things lie outside of the purview of empiricism and materialism, the belief in which does not radically impact one's behavior so long as they have a decent moral compass otherwise, can be taken on faith, and "proving" it does exist or doesn't exist is a pointless argument, since it exists outside of that ontological system.
I can relate. It's definitely possible, but you have to really want it, and it takes a lot of work.
You need cybernetics (as in the feedback loop, the habit that monitors the process of adding habits). Meditate and/or journal. Therapy is also great. There are tracking apps that may help. Some folks really like habitica/habit rpg.
You also need operant conditioning: you need a stimulus/trigger, and you need a reward. Could be as simple as letting yourself have a piece of candy.
Anything that enhances neuroplasticity helps: exercise, learning, eat/sleep right, novelty, adhd meds if that's something you need, psychedelics can help if used carefully.
I'm hardly any good at it myself but it's been some progress.
Right. I know about all these things (but thanks for listing them!) as I've been struggling with it for nearly two decades, with little progress to show.
I keep gravitating to the term, "prompt adherence", because it feels like it describes the root meta-problem I have: I can set up a system, but I can't seem to get myself to follow it for more than a few days - including especially a system to set up and maintain systems. I feel that if I could crack that, set up this "habit that monitors the process of adding habits" and actually stick to it long-term, I could brute-force my way out of every other problem.
If it's any help, one of the statements that stuck with me the most about "doing the thing" is from Amy Hoy:
> You know perfectly well how to achieve things without motivation.[1]
I'll also note that I'm a firm believer in removing the mental load of fake desires: If you think you want the result, but you don't actually want to do the process to get to the result, you should free yourself and stop assuming you want the result at all. Forcing that separation frees up energy and mental space for moving towards the few things you want enough.
> I keep gravitating to the term, "prompt adherence", because it feels like it describes the root meta-problem I have: I can set up a system, but I can't seem to get myself to follow it for more than a few days - including especially a system to set up and maintain systems. I feel that if I could crack that, set up this "habit that monitors the process of adding habits" and actually stick to it long-term, I could brute-force my way out of every other problem.
For what it’s worth, I’ve fallen into the trap of building an “ideal” system that I don’t use. Whether that’s a personal knowledge db , automations for tracking habits, etc.
The thing I’ve learned is for a new habit, it should have really really minimal maintenance and minimal new skill sets above the actual habit. Start with pen and paper, and make small optimizations over time. Only once you have engrained the habit of doing the thing, should you worry about optimizing it
I think we are closer than most folks would like to admit.
in my wild guess opinion:
- 2027: 10%
- 2030s: 50%
- 2040: >90%
- 3000: 100%
Assuming we don't see an existential event before then, i think it's inevitable, and soon.
I think we are gonna be arguing about the definition of "general intelligence" long after these system are already running laps around humans at a wide variety of tasks.
I'd be interested to know what the controls were for those studies. Were the participants already addicted or was the 30mg+ dosing done on non-addicted people? It's a lot of studies to pour through.
Also, that is a lot of metrics!
And it seems that the athletic performance increase to get statistical validation (for any person) is in the grams range. I ... I just can't see any reason to take that much caffeine unless I'm at the Olympics. I'd be jumping out of my skin!
Going by the graph in the article, that's still ~13% of homes owned by investors with >5 properties. And that's total of what is currently held, it speaks nothing of liquidity. That number likely includes investors who have had that property for a long time, the current property buy-up likely means far greater than 13% of the market right now is going to those sorts of aggregators.
Dropping the price of a house by a few percentage points can be the make-or-break for some families. And small changes in availability can have large impacts on price.
If we banned (or severely penalized) all entities from owning more than 5 residential homes, this would probably reduce cost by a few percentage points across the board. That's thousands of dollars.
Personally, I think unoccupied homes in general ought to be penalized (beyond just tax burden, an actual vacancy tax).
You may be interested in learning about the Land Value Tax[0] which will in effect, taxes become more burdensome for leaving land unproductive (e.g., empty housing or land). It also shifts the calculus on home improvements, which means remodeling your home or doing other perhaps large pieces of upkeep will not trigger a property tax increase as it does today, which is better for median home owners as well.
> home improvements, which means remodeling your home or doing other perhaps large pieces of upkeep will not trigger a property tax increase as it does today
I have heard this complaint here a few times, but very few specifics. I would call getting your roof replaced or your kitchen/bathroom remodelled as major home improvements. Do these actually property tax increases?
Depends on how your locality assesses the value of your home. You can probably do a web search for where you live specifically if you want to get into the nitty gritty. In the places I've lived, unless I added more square footage, these won't trigger an automatic property tax increase.
But if the improvements on your house makes the neighborhood more desirable and your neighbor's house sell for a higher price then your locality expects, then your house will be assessed at a higher value the next time the locality does their assessments, which means higher taxes.
Of course, improvements to your home that increase a sale value will affect the taxes, but the buyer has to deal with that.
Do some localities assess homes individually every so often? I wonder...
In many jurisdictions they do, yes. A general guideline is that if it requires an permit it will typically trigger an assessment and thus increase in property tax
If everything else is equal, a roof replacement or other maintenance shouldn't appreciably change the value of the house (not beyond the cost of maintenance).
What WILL change your property tax is an addition or similar that makes your house go from X (same as everyone around you) to 1.2X or similar, then you'll proportionally pay more tax.
(It varies by district, but most USA property taxes are calculated by figuring out the budget for the city/county/school district, and dividing it proportionally amongst the valuations of properties/houses. This is often displayed as a percentage of the value, but it is not a percentage TAX - as if everyone's property doubles overnight but the budget remains the same, the property tax dollar amounts would remain the same while the percentage reported goes down.)
Yes. Sugar (and all of its downstream phenomena - diabetes, insulin resistance, the ease in which sugar adds calories without satiation signals) is well established to contribute to CVD. Long-chain (animal based) sat fat and trans fat is also well established to contribute to CVD. The high calorie density of fatty foods plays a big role, as does the overall palatability and "eatability" of low fiber, high fat, high sugar, delicious foods, making portion control challenging. That should be uncontroversial at this point.
The jury is unclear on:
- How the chain length of sat fats impact things (medium-chain triglycerides seem to be protective, but the boundary between medium and long is fuzzy)
- How the ratio of the various omega-N (3/6/9) unsat fats impacts health, particularly inflammation
- The whole "seed oil" thing is probably MAHA/conspiracy style false signal at the end of the day, but it hasn't been fully debunked and there are almost certainly facets of truth to it (seed oils are a form of ultra-processed food, and all UPFs are problematic)
Confounders, confounders everywhere. This whole field is just extremely challenging and noisy.
There are many people with type 2 diabetes that are not overweight; and also many people with overweight and even obesity who do not develop type 2 diabetes. The estimate is that around 537 million people have diabetes worldwide, while overweight and obesity is estimated to affect 1.1 billion people.
Carbohydrates do cause insulin resistance and diabetes. India has average BMI of 21,9, yet has very high incidence of diabetes - largely thanks to its carbohydrate-based diet.
I think you have hit the nail on the head why more police funding, more surveillance tech, more dystopian BS that looks more like PreCrime every single day, is only going to get us so far.
I'm sure there are exceptions, but I think most folks (including criminals) believe crime is, generally speaking, bad. Folks commit crimes to survive, to enrich themselves, out of retribution, out of lapse of judgment, or lack of self control. Almost all some flavor of unmet needs. You put money into tackling those challenges, address why people are stealing, why turf wars break out, why addiction ruins lives and puts people in terrible positions, why poor nutrition and family support and mental health care lead to so many folks slipping through the cracks.
School quality’s largely in the same place. You’re not going to make much of a dent without fixing social support, the social safety net, healthcare, mental healthcare, and generally greatly improving stability for the economically bottom third or so of families.
In other words, the main problems with schools have little to do with schools. But they’re complicated and expensive problems with distant payoff, so we keep monkeying around with schools instead.
Start by doing the multi-continent probe, say 3x each. Drop the longest time probes, add probes near the shortest time, and probe once. Repeat this pattern of probe, assess, drop and add closer to the target.
You accumulate all data in your orchestrator, so in theory you don't need to deliberately issue multiple probes each round (except for the first) to get statistical power. I would expect this to "chase" the real location continuously instead of 5 discrete phases.
I just watched the Veritasium video on potentials and vector fields - the latency is a scalar potential field of sorts, and you could use it to derive a latency gradient.
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