Making $$$ & keeping them are 2 different skills.

He's demonstrated the former 16B times, now he's demonstrating the latter.

The big downside risk I see for Nvidia is a garage startup inventing a more efficient AI algo.... that only needs 20W to run.

still a more efficient algo would be better run on gigawatts of compute

Does it? There's no guarantee that algorithms receive any benefit from scale. Some don't.

And of course, in support of such an algorithm existing you have humans. Clearly AGI is present in human minds, and it apparently runs on about 20W of power.

Possibly that is how you get the world we all know and live in today ^^

1) Making money & keeping money are 2 different skillsets. You've made some $$$, now learn how to keep it.

2) Time is far more valuable than money. If you can take life-changing $$$ off the table in exchange for time, do so. The 2nd $1M buys you a tiny proportion of the benefits that the first $1M did.

3) You have a v. high risk concentrated portfolio that is aligned with your income. That's massive risk.

4) Taking it now buys you time & optionality. Leaving some still buys you blue sky. Best of both worlds.

I doubt it. Brains run at only a few operations per second.... GPUS at TFLOPS. There just isn't enough bandwidth.

My brain only needs to get mugged in a dark alley by a guy in a hoodie once to learn something.

> the U.S.'s vaunted system of checks and balances doesn't work and a similar president could be elected at any time

Precisely. The world has lost faith in both the US voters and its' checks & balances.

Buffet said he is prepared to lose $Bs, but not an ounce of trust - in 100 days the US has lost both.

Some would say further than 4 yrs. Enough of the voters and Congress have demonstrated that they are tolerant of this mode of leadership behaviour - internationally trust has disappeared for a generation.

Things that have changed recently that may affect the trend -

faith in the stability of US govt

declining need for petro dollars

increase in US debt as %age of GDP

(IANA Economist)

Speaking as an non-american reading local & global news sources....

...does Trump not understand 2nd round effects ?

From afar he seems to be intent on Making America Great for Billionaires at the expense of any country less powerful than the US.

I already read article about how Trumps people are fuming at Zelensky as the cause of Vance and Trump hysterical meltdown

So, no, Trump does not understand that. He is protected from that.

> and then you found that it offered marginal-but-not-amazing improvement over the previous version.

Then call it GPT 4.1 and allow version space for the next iteration.

I think the label V4.5 is giving the impression of more than marginal improvements.

I use minbrowser.org/ Some sites disallow it... min suggests changing the user-agent setting to something like - Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:109.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/121.0

An alternative explaination...

Deepseek is a side project for a hedge fund.

Shorting NVIDIA & releasing everything including the source would have a high probability of being hugely profitable, with almost zero downside if it went unnoticed.

That would be an interesting 'insider trading' work-around: use inside knowledge of a private, non-US company to trade correlated stocks in public US companies.

If it was a public US company releasing Deepseek, and you shorted nvidia based on inside knowledge, presumably you'd fall foul of insider trading rules?

An interesting spin. But not an easy feat in any way. Yes, if you see the benchmark results, you can start speculate about its impact on the stock market

But it’s a consequence of your highly concentrated effort on the primary project (DeepSeek), not a side project.