Yep, my father, with no business training or college was funded by my grandfather and was in business for years, decades. He ultimately failed without any savings and died in poverty. Being a small business owner was the only job he ever had.
My grandfather was similar--he was the first one to leave the farm life and tried several different careers and businesses. He worked for a railroad, was a realtor, owned a lumber yard, and lastly owned a delicatessen. The lumber yard nearly destroyed the entire family because he would sell on credit and then contractors failed to pay up on time. It was a huge disaster and the the thing is, this was way before the Home Depot national type chains or the "84 Lumber" regional type chains and if he had had any business acumen at all, he could have been the franchise. People don't know what they don't know. Anyways, my dad worked for my grandfather for free for several years and screwed up his life quite a bit doing so in order to "save the family" and I think my dad has told me this damn story every single time I have called him on the telephone for at least the past 30 years. His complex over the whole situation must be enormous!
This is why I never started a business myself. I figured it was a family curse to fail at business.
Really? Logic wouldn't dictate that if I'm up 300% or more over two years and everyone is starting to get jittery about an AI bubble that perhaps I should pull out now and await the pullback? If it happens in a year, and I can buy back in at a 15-20% discount, that is also a return!! Do you hold for possibly another 5%? That doesn't make any sense. Your cash gets 4% a year just waiting--paid monthly.
Yeah, that you could do, though even then if the timing is sufficiently uncertain you might be in trouble, and it's particularly risky in a time of stubbornly higher-than-ideal inflation. If you happened to have a bunch of Hype-y AI Ltd, then sure, probably. Far less clearly a good idea if you just have the S&P500, though.
It's further complicated by the fact that most of the worst examples of AI hype are not public. Like, if and when the bubble bursts, the hyperscalers will likely get burned, but they're not going to go to zero or anywhere near it.
And that's assuming you already have stocks; it's very different, risk-wise, from shorting or buying puts.
> Your cash gets 4% a year just waiting--paid monthly.
Most investors can time this aspect of the market accurately enough. It's tough for these people to stand by and watch profit being left on the table for a year or two, though. So they get back in, seeing how long they can leave their hand on the got plate.
Myself, I made the decision to go to cash a while ago, right before the recent AI pullback. Things were going great for a week until I started seeing all that money go unclaimed. I get back in, and the pullback I predicted happens. It was my own conscious decision to look past the gorilla in the room to get more free treats. I'll be fine but this is a good anecdote for how these things unfold.
It is not at all true that "Most investors can time this aspect of the market". This is laughably, absurdly, wrong - as if most people could predict the future. Here's a little advice I sincerely pray you accept : don't trade options.
This is the default. I have a few teams like this under my charge, currently.
I ask them to protect themselves by logging what data they will need to troubleshoot a new feature.
Next release comes around and there is an issue and guess what...devs asking for access to prod to troubleshoot because they don't have logs.
It is really difficult to contain oneself when getting on a call to quiet three endless chat threads because someone failed to log basic shit.
Days long anxiety-filled shit storms for absolutely no reason.
I have had other teams that would do this and they had to have the fear of God put into them to wake up and start logging. We have real problems to solve without confounding ourselves...
Hmmm...YouTube has been getting confused about the language and displaying random languages for the closed captions on videos. This was happening to me across smart TVs but I access YouTube randomly from various devices and browsers...but mostly Chrome when using a browser.
